Two offshore Australia LNG projects heading for sanction, consultant claims

Wood Mackenzie has identified at least US$11 billion of gas projects which could go forward in the Australasia region in 2021, with LNG backfill as the focus.

They include Santos’ Barossa and Woodside’s Scarborough projects offshore Northern and Western Australia.

One of the first to be approved could be Mitsui’s Waitsia in the Perth basin: this will export LNG from the North West Shelf with production starting in late 2023.

Santos should sanction the Barossa gas project late in 2Q, despite the gas’ high CO₂ content, according to Wood Mackenzie senior analyst Daniel Toleman.

Woodside is likely to sanction development of Scarborough’s gas through a Pluto train 2 project and without contracting any additional LNG, taking on exposure to the spot LNG price, Mr Toleman said.

“This is a bold strategy which allows them to take advantage of strengthening near-term market fundamentals.”

As for M&A, the consultant expects at least one significant LNG or infrastructure asset in the region to change hands, and as IOCs and more majors exit Australia, local players could take up bigger roles in the country’s upstream industry.

“If there is anything set for 2021, it is the energy transition story and how Australia will play a leading role,” Mr Toleman said.

“Central to this will be revision of plans for new and existing developments. Electrification, CCS [carbon capture and storage] and batteries will be the preferred options to reduce carbon emissions…

“In 2021, look for steps towards increased transparency and consistent emissions measurement, and carbon regulation advancing in Australia.”

Source: Offshore Magazine