BP Energy Outlook: Crude products continue transportation-fuel dominance
Crude oil products will continue to dominate global energy demand for transportation through 2040 despite surprisingly strong growth in electric vehicle sales, BP Plc said in its 2018 Energy Outlook
Oil and gas will still play a major role under each of the forecast’s scenarios, BP Chief Economist Spencer Dale said on the 26th February during the report’s US launch at the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington, DC.
“Strong growth in tight oil and natural gas production will make the US the world’s leading oil and gas producer by 2040. But it also will remain the leading oil and gas consumer,” Mr Dale stated.
“We expect total global energy demand to grow by about a third between now and 2040.”
The report emphasises an “evolving transitions” (ET) scenario, which suggests what might happen if there are not any substantive disruptions of current trends, he said.
Under the ET scenario, crude accounts for 85% of total transport fuel demand in 2040, down from 94% currently. Natural gas, electricity, and other fuels are each projected to account for 5% of transportation fuel’s total, the report indicated.
Gas’s growth could be concentrated in the use of LNG in long-distance road haulage and marine transportation, it said. “All of the growth in transport fuel demand comes from developing economies, with China and India accounting for over half of the increase,” the report said.
Non-combusted use of fuels as feedstocks for petrochemicals, lubricants, and bitumen will become an increasingly important component of overall industrial demand for oil after 2030, reflecting more limited potential efficiency gains relative to transportation, it noted.
Source: Oil & Gas Journal